The Scenarios
To show how New Zealand might look in 2050, and to consider how we might get there, we have developed four energy scenarios.

We start by building a picture of those 2050 “futures states” (figure 10), then looked back, and describe the energy pathways which might get us there.

Figure 10
SCENARIO FUTURE STATES


Not wanting to predict winners, we deliberately present polarised views of these futures, whilst keeping them reasonably plausible. The purpose is to show the impact of key drivers in each scenario and to convey a logical chain of events, understand the consequences of them and draw useful insights.

By using scenarios we attempt to quantify how much energy we will need in 2050. We know that our energy needs will be met from a variety of sources, some of which may have radically changed
by then or will be assisted by technological advances yet to occur. Our energy demand will also be an outcome of the type of society we want to build. This in turn may influence what we consider to be acceptable energy choices. A scenario approach enables us to build alternative pictures of what a more sustainable energy future might look like.

Figure 11 shows the Energy Demand and GDP Growth of each of the scenarios through to 2050.



To put the energy demand into context, the Maui Gas Reserve was expected to contain approximately 4000PJ of energy. The scenario energy use would deplete a Maui sized field in:

Growth 2.6 years
Transformation 4.9 years
Shielded 4.3 years
Conservation 8.5 years

Further modelling differentiates the scenarios by sectoral energy demand as seen in Figure 12. This exercise is based on a top-down analysis and was not produced using sector by sector analysis.
It seeks to highlight the magnitude of the shift in energy demand over the timeline.



Scenario considerations
In developing the scenarios, the following factors were considered:

The pace at which technological change can happen;

Future energy supply and technology options; and

Climate change.

Although New Zealand’s climate change obligations are uncertain beyond 2012, we assume that there will be a long-term requirement to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The extent to which mitigation is required varies between scenarios; however in all cases we assume that fossil fuel emissions are eliminated through a switch to renewables, reduced through technology advancement or mitigated through sequestration by 2050.