What are the choices?

If New Zealanders want to maintain their relative living standards and quality of life the country needs to face up to an emerging energy problem. Relying on energy efficiency alone will not solve the problem of how we meet energy demand in the future.

In each scenario we have assumed a sustained rate of energy-efficiency up-take through to 2050. For the low energy scenarios (Conservation and Transformation), the assumed rate of energy-efficiency up-take has been set at an aggressive level.

Energy demand may continue its historical relationship with GDP growth (the Growth scenario).
If we try to break this historical link between GDP growth and energy demand there are significant challenges in how we transform the structure of our economy and the way we organise our social and transport needs (the Transformation scenario).

There is an alternative to the above two options and that is to agree to accept lower living standards and growth and instead head for the Conservation scenario.

In order to sustain GDP growth we know that increased energy demand has to be met (even in the Transformation scenario). The challenge is managing the supply:

Even with a marked increase in renewables, starting from an already high base, there is a risk that renewables alone will not meet the full demand.

Fossil fuels will continue to be part of our future energy mix. Given this, we need to deal with the associated greenhouse gas emissions to address climate change considerations.

We recommend that both are part of the energy mix, with use of renewables being broadened and fossil fuel impacts mitigated through increased efficiency in conjunction with carbon capture and storage.

We consider that most New Zealanders will prefer a future that is a closer to the Transformation scenario which incorporates increasing environmental protection. The Conservation scenario is not the
only one providing environmental protection – we can address this prerequisite whilst growing the economy. To do this we will require behavioural change in the way we use energy combined with reliance on developing technologies.