Fossil fuels in the form of oil and gas are a finite resource and there is a growing consensus that global oil production will peak sometime over the next 50 years. Furthermore, a body of science believes that the impact of fossil fuel use on the level of carbon dioxide (C02) in the atmosphere means we cannot go on using these resources in the way we have in the past if climate change issues are to be addressed.

The Brundtland Commission highlighted the conflict between the interests of economic development and the interests of the environment and developed the concept of sustainability where:

“Development should meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

The New Zealand Government has released its own discussion paper on sustainable energy (October 2004). This summarises the current situation here as:

Innovation is modest;

Use of renewable fuels compared to world average is high but still reliant on fossil fuels;

Supply security is a growing concern; and

The environment is under threat from climate change.

A number of national and international organisations have undertaken similar studies on the challenges to achieve sustainable energy. We have distilled some key learnings from these studies, applied them to the New Zealand context and then developed alternative scenarios that tell a story about the different ways New Zealand may achieve energy sustainability by 2050.

We look at key drivers influencing energy use in New Zealand and considering our future energy choices and the impact of technology, environmental issues and social constraints on those energy choices. Through this we can develop insights into what a sustainable energy future might look like and how we might get there.

We assume key aspirations for our country:

New Zealand will remain a good, global citizen;

New Zealand will take care of its environment; and

New Zealand should have a world-class quality of life with better-than-average incomes amongst developed countries.

We consider the International Energy Agency (IEA) criteria of affordability, security of supply and environmental protection appropriate for assessing the various sustainable energy options for New Zealand.

An additional criterion, not covered by the international literature, is optionality. By this we mean, for example, the extent to which a long-term energy investment forecloses on other options for a period, impeding the take-up of energy-efficient and cost-effective investments.